July 3, 2025 — Global Markets — In a bold forecast that is turning heads, financial powerhouse Standard Chartered has projected that Bitcoin could jump to $135,000 by the end of the third quarter and surge further to $200,000 by the end of 2025. This bullish outlook, based not on the reinvigorated halving cycle, but on “unusually strong” ETF inflows and growing corporate treasury demand, paints a dramatically different picture for Bitcoin’s trajectory in the second half of the year.
Responding to months of sluggish price action and entrenched halving hesitation, Standard Chartered’s digital asset research head, Geoffrey Kendrick, reframed the outlook. In a report shared with Cointelegraph, Kendrick noted that Bitcoin’s recent halving in April 2024 is unlikely to prompt the familiar correction seen in prior cycles. Instead, he pointed to institutional investors and public companies—some 240 globally, including MicroStrategy and Sequans—as the drivers of a new phase in Bitcoin demand.
Why ditch the classic halving playbook? Kendrick argues that Bitcoin’s dynamics have fundamentally shifted. Spot ETFs launched in 2024 have attracted nearly $49 billion in net inflows, dwarfing past patterns anchored in scarcity events. Meanwhile, corporate treasuries added around 125,000 BTC in the second quarter alone—almost matching the 120,000 BTC purchased via ETFs.
Standard Chartered believes this institutional wave—rather than miner supply constraints—is the primary catalyst driving returns. Kendrick suggests it’s time to retire the once-prevailing narrative of a steep post-halving stagnation. Now, Bitcoin is being propelled by long-term capital flows and corporate confidence.
The bank’s forecast outlines two key milestones: $135,000 by Q3 and $200,000 by year-end. These aren’t arbitrary figures, but stem from a combination of factors:
With Q2 seeing nearly 245,000 BTC demand from ETF and treasury flows, Kendrick anticipates that Q3 could match or exceed that momentum—including newly filing companies following the “Strategy model”.
Kendrick also highlighted three political developments that could boost risk appetite:
- A possible early replacement of Federal Reserve Chair Powell
- Passage of the U.S. GENIUS stablecoin legislation
- Growing sovereign interest in Bitcoin reserves
With U.S. M2 money supply expanding and the dollar index weakening by nearly 11% in H1 2025, Bitcoin’s appeal as a non-sovereign asset is gaining traction—potentially pushing it toward $170,000 in a liquidity-driven scenario.
Standard Chartered wasn’t entirely unguarded in its approach. While bullish, the bank warned of possible choppiness in Q4, as markets digest fresh policy shifts or profit-taking behavior.
Technically, Bitcoin recently broke above $107,000. Momentum indicators like the MACD crossover and strengthening RSI (~55) suggest potential for a move through $111,980—the previous high—toward the $135,000 zone. But any dip below key supports, including the 50-day EMA (~$104,000), could derail the ascent.
For institutional allocators and high-net-worth individuals, Standard Chartered’s forecast confirms a growing narrative: Bitcoin is now being viewed as a portfolio staple rather than a hedging experiment.
The reliance on ETF inflows and corporate treasuries—rather than speculative halving jumps—signals maturation. With stable regulatory advancements such as utility-grade custody, retirement account inclusion, and stablecoin legislation, the infrastructure for crypto is finally catching up.
Still, short-term volatility remains. July historically sees thin liquidity, and any macro shock—like surprise Fed moves—could deliver a sudden shift. Investors, therefore, must remain agile despite the longer-term confidence.
Standard Chartered’s prediction—$135,000 by Q3 and $200,000 by year-end—represents one of the most bullish institutional forecasts yet. It reflects a seismic shift: Bitcoin is no longer riding on halving narratives but being buoyed by institutional-grade adoption, corporate ledger diversification, and macroeconomic trends.
Whether Bitcoin can fulfill these expectations depends on continued ETFs and treasury buys, supportive legislation, and global geopolitical stability. For now, though, this forecast is a clear vote of confidence: Bitcoin has entered a new era—driven not by scarcity cycles, but by capital conviction.