Renowned cryptocurrency analyst PlanB, known for his Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, has released a new prediction indicating a V-shaped recovery for Bitcoin, suggesting that the bull market will continue. This forecast is based on historical data and market trends, offering insights into Bitcoin’s potential trajectory.
In late March 2025, Bitcoin experienced a significant dip, reaching approximately $82,000. However, by the end of April, the cryptocurrency had rebounded sharply, closing the month at $94,181—a 27% increase. This rapid recovery aligns with PlanB’s previous predictions, which anticipated a “dump before the pump,” and supports the notion of a V-shaped recovery.
PlanB’s analysis suggests that this rebound is not merely a short-term correction but a continuation of a longer-term bull market. He emphasizes that the absence of a typical end-of-cycle distribution phase, as indicated by on-chain data, points toward sustained bullish momentum.
Central to PlanB’s bullish outlook is his Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, which predicts Bitcoin’s price based on its scarcity. According to the S2F model, Bitcoin’s average price for the 2024–2028 halving cycle is projected at $500,000. PlanB believes that reaching $400,000 within the next few months is plausible, given the current market dynamics and historical patterns observed in previous bull cycles.
He also notes that Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 66, a level that has historically preceded significant price increases. PlanB anticipates that the RSI will rise above 80 in the coming months, further supporting the potential for substantial price appreciation.
Market Indicators Reinforce Bullish Sentiment
Several market indicators corroborate PlanB’s optimistic forecast:
- 200-Week Moving Average: The 200-week moving average has increased from $46,000 to $47,000, signaling growing market confidence and potentially marking the beginning of a “Fear of Missing Out” (FOMO) phase.
- Realized Prices: Short-term realized prices are trending upwards, with the five-month realized price for short-term holders at $92,000. This indicates that a majority of Bitcoin holders are in profit, a condition often associated with bullish markets.
- On-Chain Data: PlanB’s market cycle model, developed in 2022, shows no signs of a distribution phase, which typically precedes a bear market. Instead, the data points to continued bullish momentum, suggesting that the current cycle is still in its growth phase.
While PlanB’s projections are optimistic, other analysts urge caution. Vugar Usi Zade, COO at Bitget, acknowledges that PlanB’s $400,000 forecast is based on historical patterns and the S2F model. However, he notes that macroeconomic factors, such as potential Federal Reserve rate changes and geopolitical tensions, could introduce volatility and affect Bitcoin’s trajectory.
Usi Zade also points out that institutional adoption and the introduction of regulated derivatives have changed the market dynamics, potentially smoothing volatility but also making cycles less predictable. He advises treating the $400,000 target as an upper-bound scenario rather than a definitive forecast.
PlanB’s recent analysis presents a compelling case for the continuation of Bitcoin’s bull market, supported by a V-shaped recovery and reinforced by various market indicators. While his Stock-to-Flow model suggests a potential rise to $400,000 in the coming months, investors should remain aware of external factors that could influence market conditions. As always, thorough research and risk assessment are essential when navigating the volatile cryptocurrency landscape.