A pattern is emerging in crypto markets: Bitcoin appears poised to follow the lead of the S&P 500 this July. With U.S. equities enjoying a decade-long run of gains in July, analysts say Bitcoin is tracking the same seasonal curve—setting the stage for a potential new all-time high by month-end.
May’s sluggish performance put many traders on edge, but July has historically been a month of turning points for both equities and crypto. Since 2015, the S&P 500 has closed July higher ten years in a row, a phenomenon that seems to spill over into Bitcoin. Industry observers at Cointelegraph and Ainvest point out that, while Bitcoin may be more volatile, July performance has been “rarely negative”—with typical drops limited to under 10% and winners quite common.
On July 1, veteran trader Mikybull Crypto tweeted that Bitcoin’s chart closely resembled the S&P’s pre-July setup, reaffirming market expectations of upside.
Bitcoin’s price action over the past few weeks lends weight to these forecasts. Pushes above $116K and $118K this week sent short positions into a liquidation spiral, erasing over $1 billion in derivative bets. Those squeezes, combined with technical breakouts like the confirmation of a cup-and-handle formation, suggest momentum is coalescing.
Seasonal equity strength now echoes in crypto. A global “risk-on” climate—driven by Fed optimism, easing trade tensions, and strong Q2 earnings—has buoyed both the S&P and BTC, reinforcing the idea that assets often rise in unison during summer rallies.
July’s optimism rests on more than seasonal patterns—chart signals bolster the case. Analysts highlight Bitcoin’s successful breakout above the $112K neckline, the cup-and-handle’s “rim,” with potential targets shaping up between $134K and $150K.
Mean reversion studies also confirm that BTC has reclaimed prior resistance as support—particularly between $108K–$110K—and now sits above key trendlines like the 50- and 200-day moving averages . With on-chain metrics reflecting holder strength and reduced realized losses, the backdrop is structurally bullish.
Despite structural support, a tempering effect is possible. Historically, Bitcoin’s June volatility aligns with dips beneath S&P performance—so any macro shock or rate surprise could cap gains before July ends .
Key technical thresholds will also guide market reviews: a loss of support around $108K–$110K or falling below the 50-day moving average could stall momentum and break alignment with equities.
The convergence of seasonality, technical structure, and macro alignment gives Bitcoin a credible shot at mirroring the S&P 500’s July rally. If equities continue to scale new highs, BTC may well follow suit—potentially targeting a fresh record above $123K, and possibly approaching the $140K–$150K range before the month is out.
Still, caution is warranted. Investors should monitor correlation with equity flows, ETF inflows, and macro headlines to separate a genuine breakout from a false dawn. But for now, July is shaping up as one of the most compelling windows for Bitcoin in years.